Are Home Prices Approaching Bubble Territory?

As home values continue to rise, some are questioning whether we are approaching another housing bubble. Zillow just reported that:

“National home values have surpassed the peak hit during the housing bubble and are at their highest value in more than a decade.”

Though that statement is correct, we must realize that just catching prices of a decade ago does not mean we are at bubble numbers. Here is a graph of median prices as reported by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

We can see that prices rose during the early 2000s, fell during the crash and have risen since 2013.

However, let’s assume there was no housing bubble and crash and that home prices appreciated at normal historic levels (3.6% annually) over the last ten years.

Here is a graph comparing actual price appreciation (tan bars) with what prices would have been with normal appreciation (blue bars).

Bottom Line

As we can see, had there not been a boom and bust, home values would essentially be where they are right now.

Market Stats for Tracy and Mountain House

Local Market Trends for May

The following information is from the local MLS database, as of June 1, 2017 and is compared to(May 1, 2017).   Prices are climbing again this month due to the lack of inventory! The amount of listings coming on are replacing the homes coming off. But demand is still strong and good homes get multiple offers especially homes priced under $400,000 and the higher priced homes are taking longer to sell.  We only have a 1.2 months supply of inventory.  A healthy market has 6 months supply. Prices are increasing as a result of this but appraisals are not keeping up. Be very careful if you or your buyer removes their appraisal contingency.  Buyers are still eager to buy and they are watching the new listings as they hit the market. And with fewer choices buyers are competing to get their offers accepted.   Interest rates are fluctuating up and down with 30 yrfixed at 4.25% and FHA/VA at 3.75-4.0%. 15 yr is 3.375. Still the lowest rates! New home construction projects are popping up more in the area and even though the prices are a little higher, there are still good deals out there in the new communities. The largest one is the Ellis Community.  Don't forget...We can represent you with the new home builders too!  Don't go with out being represented!

  　If you have been on the Fence about selling your home then NOW is still the time to sell. We need more listings! We only have a 1.2 month supply of homes to sell.  This is a serious SELLER'S MARKET and buyer in these months are serious buyers.   If you are curious to see how much equity you have in your house, give us a call for a market analysis! 209-833-7777 e-mail is sales@tracyhomes.com. Or go to www.TracyHomeValue.com to get an automated market analysis. 

Tracy, CA

ACTIVE STATUS

Total # of residential properties for sale in the city of Tracy: 103 (100)

# of REO (foreclosures): 2 (1)

# of Short Sales: 3 (2)

Average # of days on market: 27 (19)

#New Construction:  14

The median price of all homes for sale in Tracy: $524,950 ($479,950)

PENDING STATUS

Number of properties currently under agreement: 145 (128)

# of REO: 3 (0)

# of Pending Short Lender Approval: 4 (6)

# of New Construction:  8

Median pending price: $450,000 ($432,450)

SOLD STATUS

Residential property sold over previous 30 days: 105 homes (78)

REO's sold in the last month: 3 (3)

Short sales sold in the last month: 0 (1)

Median sale price: $445,000 ($450,000)

# of New Construction:  6

Median # of days on the market:  9 (12)

　

Mountain House, CA

ACTIVE STATUS

Total # of residential properties for sale in the city of Mountain House: 12 (22)

# of REO (foreclosures): 0 (0)

# of Short Sales: 0 (0)

# of New Construction: 3 (3)

Average # of days on market: 14 (13)

The median price of all homes for sale in Mountain House: $617,450 ($614,500)

PENDING STATUS

Number of properties currently under agreement: 38 (45)

# of REO: 0 (0)

# of Pending Short Lender Approval: 0 (0)

# New Construction: 3

Median pending price: $577,444 ($579,900)

SOLD STATUS

Residential property sold over previous 30 days: 29 homes (24 homes)

REO's sold in the last month: 0 (0)

Short sales sold in the last month: 1 (0)

New Construction sold: 1

Median sale price: $640,000 ($547,500)

Median # of days on the Market: 45  (10)

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HOMES SOLD IN TRACY IN MAY

Take a look at this chart to see the SOLDS in Tracy for May.  Call us for a free Market Analysis on your home!  209-833-7777.

		Address		Beds	Baths	Sq Ft	List	Sell	DOM
18555	S	MacArthur	Dr	2 (3)	1 (1 0)	1170	350000	350000	221
28295		Jack Godwin	Way	5	4 (3 1)	3017	615000	610000	232
3942		Summit	Dr	4	3 (3 0)	2809	555900	540000	197
4080		Comstock	Pl	4	4 (3 1)	3379	619900	594900	130
1858		Ponderosa	Dr	4	3 (3 0)	3235	579900	575066	152
2516		Mia	Way	4	4 (3 1)	3719	619790	702126	26
1485	E	Grant Line	Rd	3	1 (1 0)	900	325000	325400	42
4122		Flint	Ln	5	4 (4 0)	3331	599000	600000	76
2931		Ponte Mira	Way	3	2 (2 0)	1416	385000	380000	25
2556		Mia	Way	4	4 (3 1)	3677	629900	615000	77
2865		Georgia	Dr	4	3 (2 1)	1778	415000	405000	37
1480		Andrew	St	3	3 (2 1)	1454	390000	395000	49
341		Baldwin	Ln	4	3 (3 0)	2389	460000	450000	34
4574		Lindsey	Ln	3 (4)	3 (3 0)	2588	540000	530000	50
2012		East	St	4	2 (2 0)	1157	369950	356000	44
30773	S	Tracy	Blvd	3 (4)	2 (2 0)	1634	569000	585000	27
1441		Kyle	Ct	4	3 (3 0)	2158	440000	400000	4
1813		Egret	Dr	5	3 (3 0)	2961	539900	539900	14
2515		Mia	Way	3	2 (2 0)	2299	563900	549999	49
3208		Hutton	Pl	5 (6)	5 (4 1)	4633	949950	950000	68
1822		Periwinkle	Dr	5	3 (3 0)	2495	490000	471000	45
1356		Eagle	St	4	3 (3 0)	2582	530000	530000	37
135	E	21st	St	3	1 (1 0)	1272	339900	330000	35
366		Darlene Lane		4 (5)	2 (2 0)	2049	445000	435000	34
21	E	3rd	St	1 (3)	1 (1 0)	1547	150000	183500	17
1976		Calaveras	Ct	4	3 (2 1)	2147	449900	432000	35
21	E	South	St	3	2 (2 0)	1412	315000	295000	39
2004		GIBSON	Ct	4	4 (3 1)	3008	549999	550000	11
818		Chestnut	Ave	3	2 (2 0)	1168	333000	350000	35
27660	S	Fagin	Dr	4	3 (3 0)	2904	849000	849000	37
111		C	St	3	2 (2 0)	1091	279000	255000	26
362	W	22nd	St	3	1 (1 0)	1334	315000	320000	7
2506		Marie Antonette	Ln	4	3 (3 0)	2199	498000	515000	7
505	W	12th	St	3	2 (2 0)	1952	339950	339950	29
1401		Cypress	Dr	3	2 (2 0)	1120	375000	360000	11
718		Harold Smith	Dr	4	3 (2 1)	2190	479950	475000	8
4544		Lindsey	Ln	5	3 (3 0)	3133	565000	565000	5
1364		Pyrenees	St	5	4 (4 0)	2928	600000	600000	25
2970		Reyes	Ln	3	2 (2 0)	1206	349950	360000	7
739		Williams	St	3	3 (2 1)	1664	394900	406000	12
1714		Hudson	Way	4	3 (2 1)	2080	444900	460000	7
135	W	Lowell	Ave	1	1 (1 0)	576	249999	258000	15
1351		Hepburn	St	4	3 (2 1)	2152	459000	470000	5
733		Glenpine	Ct	4	3 (2 1)	1705	399950	415000	8
1291		Riverview	Ave	7	3 (3 0)	3712	535000	535000	12
830		Amaretto	Dr	4	2 (2 0)	1916	375000	375000	17
2676		Green Haven	Ct	4	4 (3 1)	3308	644000	644000	7
176		Renown	Dr	4	2 (2 0)	1785	425000	457000	7
2995		Misty Meadow	Dr	4	3 (2 1)	1441	399900	420000	11
850		Sultana	Dr	3	2 (2 0)	1167	353000	365000	6
362		Roan	Dr	3	2 (2 0)	1650	415590	430000	7
62	W	7th	St	3	1 (1 0)	1304	320000	320000	6
2987		Young	Ct	5	4 (4 0)	3251	535000	550000	9
2551		Wyman	Way	4 (5)	4 (3 1)	3140	530000	557500	9
211		Portico	Ln	3 (4)	3 (2 1)	2355	479950	479950	26
2318		Ogden Sannazor		5	4 (4 0)	3468	520000	520000	8
960		Peerless	Ct	3	3 (2 1)	1382	355950	362950	7
4750		Twin Oaks		4	3 (3 0)	2603	469000	465000	13
1158		Atherton	Dr	4	3 (2 1)	1902	405000	465000	4
1505		Tahoe	Cir	3	3 (2 1)	1733	435000	435000	6
404	W	10th	St	2	1 (1 0)	986	295000	295000	13
2434		Spring Creek	Ct	3	3 (2 1)	1609	430000	435000	21
2581		Tennis Lane		3 (4)	3 (2 1)	2563	480000	496000	13
311	W	10th	St	2	1 (1 0)	1062	210000	210000	2
2189		Gibralter	Ct	4	3 (2 1)	2355	460000	465000	15
10	E	20th		3 (4)	1 (1 0)	1206	315999	305000	14
472		MONTCLAIR	Ln	4	3 (2 1)	1868	445000	460000	7
711	N	Hickory	Ave	4	3 (3 0)	1716	385000	392000	7
912		Tarrogana	Dr	3 (4)	2 (2 0)	1693	385000	385000	10
1173		Pyrenees	Ct	4	3 (3 0)	3078	599950	640000	9
2	W	Whittier	Ave	2	1 (1 0)	1097	330000	345000	7
1015		Winter	Ct	3 (4)	3 (2 1)	1436	410000	408000	5
2730		Oxford	Ct	4	3 (3 0)	2452	471000	471000	5
1965	W	Kavanagh	Ave	3	3 (2 1)	1373	385000	405000	5
1327		Gwerder	Ct	4	3 (3 0)	2158	439875	450000	7
425	E	3rd	St	3	2 (2 0)	1154	349900	375000	8
27836		Gerhart	Ln	5	4 (3 1)	3590	789126	760000	7
1420		Kyle	Ct	4	3 (3 0)	2443	442000	445000	17
170		Cedar Mountain	Dr	4 (5)	3 (3 0)	2373	449950	450000	17
1570		Joseph Menusa	Ln	4	2 (2 0)	1850	435000	460000	5
670		Potsgrove	Ct	3	3 (2 1)	1682	395000	395000	7
925		Gotland	Ct	3	2 (2 0)	1650	420000	425000	5
402	W	Emerson	Ave	2	1 (1 0)	1214	355000	340000	4
2433		Colby	Ct	5	3 (3 0)	2420	507500	495000	34
1660	W	Kavanagh	Ave	4	3 (3 0)	2420	464000	467000	9
2115		Alfred George	Ct	5	3 (3 0)	2421	495000	495000	7
4685		Dandelion Loop		5	3 (3 0)	2720	485000	510000	8
1863		Oswego	Ct	4	3 (3 0)	2642	500000	500000	5
1679		Dove	Dr	5	5 (4 1)	3417	739000	750000	5
675		Sequoia	Blvd	3	2 (2 0)	1457	359950	377000	8
485		Magnolia	Ln	3	2 (2 0)	1306	325000	343000	8
2994		Ray M Gutierrez	Ln	4	3 (3 0)	1800	394900	430000	11
2254		Gary	Ln	4	2 (2 0)	1850	465000	472000	7
139	W	Carlton Way		3	2 (2 0)	1822	389000	389000	26
222	W	21st		3	2 (2 0)	1047	339500	340000	5
1821		Parkside	Dr	4 (5)	3 (3 0)	2360	459000	465000	8
3352		Pumpkin	Ct	3 (4)	3 (2 1)	1441	424950	438000	5
1930		Thomas Dehaven	Ct	4	2 (2 0)	1475	400000	419000	11
1755		Thicket	Ct	3	3 (2 1)	1835	436000	436000	5
28450		Jack Godwin	Ct	5	4 (3 1)	3017	660000	660000	4
1088		Roy Frerichs	Ln	4	3 (3 0)	2199	488000	495000	5
880		Bryce	Way	5	3 (3 0)	2360	465000	465000	7
1421		Teakwood	Way	3	3 (2 1)	1461	389900	430000	7
3381		Cabrillo Drive		3	2 (2 0)	1277	389000	400000	2
1928		Pagoda	Ct	4	3 (2 1)	2032	450000	435000	7